Electric cars pass S-Curve Tipping Point in 23 countries – GAME OVER ICE!
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#electriccars # S-Curve #TippingPoint #evnews #evsales
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Game over – again or not yet again?
5% is laughable, soon EV cars will meet a saturation point and sales will flatten out. ICE will serve the high and long distance market.
Tesla took that "blind leap of faith" because they were a start up and had no legacy costs.
Prices dropping are the big driver of much of the take up of new tech. With EVs it also helps that governments throw taxpayers money at buyers, when there ars far more important things to spend it on.
Great video Sam. I have just spent 7weeks driving around the UK and for a country that people are still saying we're not ready, London is incredible I was sitting at a set of lights surrounded by electric cars vans and buses,all of the courier bikes are electric as well,no helmets and a total disregard of the speed limit. BUT everyone is going electric, as you so rightly say, just a matter of time. . Keep smiling everyone
The famous Bromberg 5% of sales point based upon Norway. So some perspective.
However, it about the number of EV’s against the total car population that matters so how many countries have 5% of their total registered car population BEV. In the United Kingdom, there were 33.27 million cars (81.5 per cent), 4.65 million LGVs (11.4 per cent), 0.54 million HGVs (1.3 per cent), 1.37 million motorcycles (3.3 per cent), 0.14 million buses & coaches (0.3 per cent) and 0.85 million other vehicles (2.1 per cent) licensed at the end of March 2023. Of the 1,219,000 licensed plug-in vehicles in the UK at the end of March 2023 (VEH0141a): 701,000 were BEV cars (58%) 432,000 were PHEV cars (35%) 49,000 were BEV light goods vehicles (4%). So all plug-in vehicles 3.66%, encouragingly BEV cars are at 2.1% and climbing fast. The key is how long to get to 5% of the total registered car population. To put that in perspective Norway’s people population is less than that of the North West of England and half that of the South East excluding London.
Thanks.
Great Mate! EVs are jUST SUPERIOR! Faster, cheaper. safer, convenient-et;), fun-ner, environmentally better…
we really need to start thinking about how to STOP our government from bailing out these ICE idiot companies who are OBVIOUSLY making bad decisions by not switching over to electric. They are IDIOTS and we all have to pay for it.
Love it!
Incapable of checking the simplest facts Malcomb? Your problem is that you listen to too much slanted garbage. Lithium is 0.02% of the earths crust; 20 mg per kilogram. A simple wiki lookup would have revealed this "At 20 mg lithium per kg of Earth's crust, lithium is the 25th most abundant element. According to the Handbook of Lithium and Natural Calcium, "Lithium is a comparatively rare element, although it is found in many rocks and some brines, but always in very low concentrations."
I think within a few years if most people were to buy a new car, it's most likely to be an EV. ICE will have low resale value and ultimately higher running costs. It's almost game over for ICE cars.
Pretty good analysis. Thanks. You do, however, consistently leave out Rivian in your considerations. It’s an industry leader and will take sufficient market share over the next few years that you will regret having neglected it.
Thanks Sam. This industry is a good news story most days and you help get the message out.
HYBRIDS SUCK!!! Ban them!! Environmental SCAM!!
Incentives should not apply to battery packs less than 30Kw!!
The CyberTruck will be a bellwether for the USA market. If it succeeds then away we go. If it’s not it will be slow going for awhile.
LMFAO MICROWAVE OVENS USED LESS ELECTRICITY , ELECTRIC CARS CAUSED SURGE IN ELECTRICITY USE AND NO AIR CONDITIONING ON 120° DAYS
Keep dreaming …more EV's are catching fire than my barbeque
Main stream media agrees with whatever they are told to agree with.
Spain is as usual behind the curve.
Did you say EVs are affordable lol
Don't let them get to you Sam.
ACB was $127. all time high , TLRY $147. and CGC $50 . They tanked hard the past few years but now they are positioned more strongly than ever .
Badly curated text talked word for word without proper arrangement. Do you just like to talk and hear yourself? How a proper content arrangement?
Agreed. The S-Curve and economic-industrial machine is unstoppable now. But listen to this … unbelievable!!!
Well, I just talked to an automotive engineer from a "top university" who is working at one of the "top" domestic manufacturers. He has all kinds of cognitive biases against Tesla and EVs in general and said some really off-the-wall things. I listened because I wanted to know how "off-base" the USA domestic auto culture is. Well, he's just one engineer, but presumably one of the brightest 20 year old university graduates they have.
Then I asked him if he had driven a recent Tesla, for example a Model Y. He responded that he has never driven a Tesla. So apparently it is a good idea to have second hand FUD ("knowledge") of your competition? Wow, that's how it was in the 70's. I can only speculate that social media, Yahoo, Fox News, and inbreeding at the company gatherings is preventing a realistic perspective 😉 Or maybe the "supply chain" vs systems engineering focus means he is persuaded by the legacy supply chain which needs to sell too many parts to build a legacy vehicle?
So here in the USA, we have engineers and probably executives with no Tesla driving, charging, design, ownership experience directing the future of USA industry. I heard wild opinions-inferences like "it always takes an hour to charge your car while you wait" and "there are no battery developments-improvements" for decades. The auto engineer didn't even know about Sandy Munro and his company. He has no clue of applied physics and battery technology or the recycling of battery materials.
So if that's the best talent-knowledge and critical thinking we have in the USA for engineering at the "top" legacy auto companies, we will never succeed in global markets. And it makes sense why Chrysler and GM go through bankruptcies, mergers, and federal corporate welfare bailouts, and political-economic subsidies. Who's gonna be next? How do we justify wasting government-taxpayer money-debt on poorly informed management in industry?
Being that there are far fewer parts in a battery electric vehicle, it seems in short time it should be a manufacturing cost advantage over ICE vehicles.
At least 167.000 people don't think that you are a crazy person 😃
Morgan Stanley financial expertise and confidence predicts 25% EV market share by the end of the decade (2030) in the USA. An insider friend of mine says MS and the domestic manufacturers along with their suppliers have an incentive to distort the truth and spin a story-belief of low EV market penetration. You decide and do your own research … MS clients are certainly providing financial services to the ICE industry … How many fewer clients would MS have without their decades share of investments via our USA ICE industry and their well-compensated employees-investors?
for a country like mine Portugal, the main issue is cost.. when we have more electric cars of B and C segments btw 20k and 30k is game over for gas cars. i just feel sad that EU dont have incentives like US does to help eu auto makers to hqve more sales and us have cheaper cars
Sam, beware the Biden ministration. They are NOT free market people. They are socialists. I fear they have chosen the winners of the EV race and It’s everybody except Tesla. They really could care less about the environment.
I bet the car has software that can allow V2G.
An update will switch it on.
Elon Musk has held it in reserve until people realise how ezi pezi daily top-up will be and the amount of stored energy available.
@litestuffllc7249 it has to be less dependent on rare earths like Lithium
Sigh, so much misinformation, so little time. You used the phrase "rare earths". A simple wiki lookup would have revealed that this has a specific meaning; "a set of 17 nearly indistinguishable lustrous silvery-white soft heavy metals", none of which is lithium. You may have meant a rare element, and that the terminology your quote from the Handbook used; but what you said is "rare earths", and lithium isn't one of those 17 elements.
@litestuffllc7249 There is a shortage of lithium and it will directly impact production.
False There are 26 million tons of proven lithium reserves worldwide; this is 260 years' worth, at current consumption rates. To put it another way, this is enough for batteries for 3 billion cars, twice as many as there are in the entire world.
Over the last 5 years production has averaged 100,000 tons.
Amazingly, given your advanced Dunning-Kruger, this is correct, but irrelevant.
It has not risen significantly even with the demand for BEVs
False. Actually, it's increased 88 percent during the last five years, and is 3.4 times what it was just seven years ago.
Your hyperbolic claims comparing the water used to mine lithium to "the worlds fresh water" is a straw man argument. This is because mining lithium doesn't use fresh water, but non-potable water: "In the brine mining process, extremely salty water from an underground reservoir is pumped to the surface and evaporated in large, extravagantly colored ponds, leaving high concentrations of lithium behind" (https://youtu.be/HSh6EgMwMOY?si=iIwpzXYCAU7XXMee&t=52).
But your biggest failure is a complete lack of perspective, with your hysterical claims about lithium mining; in the big picture, the amount of lithium mined annually is a tiny fraction of the amount mined of many other materials, that are mined in ways that are just as damaging. One example is coal; the US alone mines 1 billion tons of coal a year, 10,000 times as much in this country as there is lithium mined in the entire world. And coal mining uses 75 trillion gallons of water a year in the US alone, most if not all of it fresh; which is 1,500 times as much water as is used mining lithium in the entire world, most of it undrinkable brine.
In a very real sense, mining a tiny fraction of as much lithium in the entire world as we mine coal just in the US, will help set the stage for reduction and eventual elimination of the use of coal. Further, once all 1.5 billion cars have been converted to EVs, using only half the proven reserves of lithium—and assuming EV batteries will continue to use lithium, which they likely won't—no further mining of lithium will be necessary, because all EV batteries are being recycled. Meanwhile, coal is completely non-renewable, and has a double impact on the environment; once, when it's mined, using vast amounts of fresh water; and once when it's burned, spewing vast amounts of GHGs into the atmosphere. In this context, the environmental damage of lithium mining is a trivial price to pay for contributing to the reduction and elimination of the hugely larger environmental damage of coal mining, through conversion of the entire transportation section to renewable sources, which Tesla is committed to.
So if you want to get on your soapbox about something, make it coal, which has a huge negative impact on the environment; and not lithium, which has a comparatively trivial impact, and is part of the transition to a completely renewable transportation sector.
Reserves are ore not processed lithium; it mean nothing if you can't process it. It takes 500,000 gallons of water to process 1 ton of lithium. To process the 130,000 tons of lithium produced in 2022 required 1% of all the fresh water on earth; only about 3 million BEVs were produced out of a market of 100 million – i.e. about 3%. To achieve 10x; you'd also have to use 10x the water 10%. To process that much lithium would take all the water in Lakes Michigan and Erie – no – that will never happen so Lithium doesn't work. You probably will never even get 3% of the worlds fresh water devoted to lithium processing so you'd never get to 10% of the market.
Sam, please, please don't let the haters and non believers get to you. I've got a couple of good friends who've almost given up YouTube just because a few haters got in their heads. As my buddy Pat says "Don't let other people rent space in your head for free". Take care.
Stay strong.
Rob / Tesla4ever
It looks like Africa will be relegated to buying the lefover used ICE vehicles from the rest of the world. After that it will be game over unles Africa also electrifies its transport sector.
Electric vehicles aren’t better considering range, lack of cheap used inventory, inability to repair yourself, renters’ lack of home chargers, TOWING, not being able to sit unused for long periods of time due to battery drain in certain weather conditions, not being good to also sit at 100% charge due to battery damage, ability to refuel / recharge quickly, cost to replace main component for example battery versus engine or transmission, Insurance costs and repair costs, this darn trend of constantly updating software beyond the hardware abilities, so maybe forcing you to replace the entire product, and being charged after you buy the vehicle for things like subscriptions or upgrades that aren’t delivered, chance of burning your garage down because quite new charging cars are not watched versus ice cars yes more often catching fire, because so old but virtually only when they are running🤣 etc..
And some other factors, but they might help the atmosphere, and people’s health. They are for the fairly rich and for helping the planet. For most medium income and below people, they will help us into bankruptcy. We are simply overpopulated, causing food, transportation, fuel and energy, land, housing and other prices to be high. And the genius wealthy elites are doing their best to fix it all, but for most of us it’s just suffering. But we need to do it to save the climate.
@litestuffllc7249 So many lies, so little time. Are you making this stuff up out of whole cloth, or just parroting someone else's lies without the simplest plausibility check? It's a quandary…
Funny that you're now using "130,000 tons of lithium produced in 2022". In an earlier rant you said "Over the last 5 years production has averaged 100,000 tons", and "It has not risen significantly even with the demand for BEVs", which is not consistent with 130,000 tons in 2022. Were you lying then or are you lying now? Oh, I know—you were lying then, because 130,000 tons is the correct number.
Let's do a simple plausibility check of your fresh water claims. I have no idea if your claim of 500,000 gallons of brine to process 1 ton of lithium is accurate—and your posting history strongly suggests it's not—but I'll accept that for the purposes of this calculation. So to produce 10 x 130,000 tons of lithium at 500,000 gallons of water per ton will take 10 x 130,000 x 500,000 = 650 x 10^9 gallons of water. Next, a simple lookup will show that Lake Michigan contains about 1 quadrillion (1 x 10^15) gallons of water, and Lake Erie contains about .128 quadrillion (.128 x 10^15) gallons of water. The total is 1.128 x 10^15 gallons of water. So as a percentage of the capacity of Lake Michigan plus Lake Erie, the brine needed to process 130,000 x 10 tons of lithium are 650 x 10^9 / 1.128 x 10^15 = .00058 = .058%, barely one two-thousandth of your claim.
So to summarize, far from requiring "1% of all the fresh water on earth" to process the lithium mined in 2022, or "all the water in Lakes Michigan and Erie" to process ten times that, it will take a little over 1/20th of one percent of the water in Lakes Michigan and Erie to process this amount of lithium, even if your 500,000 gallons per ton is correct. And in any event, this claim is a straw man, because PROCESSING LITHIUM DOES NOT USE FRESH WATER, ONLY UNDRINKABLE BRINE.
Thanks Viking. I think the 5% adoption level is a good technical indicator. I think the real tipping point is when EV’s are better in price and overall functionality vs. ICE cars. At that point it becomes a true “no brainer” to buy electric and stay away from gas cars. I think we are very near that point already (as you’ve pointed out on numerous occasions).
I remember a microwave oven we (parents) got in 1979 or 80. Externally it was almost 3' wide, 18" high and about 18" deep. And more than 50% of that was operating guts. The rest was the cavity for heating. In probably 1987 or 88, they bought a microwave with about the same heating area overall but the exterior was way less in size than the previous one and was a hooded/vented unit over the stove top. And tons more nuance as to how you wanted to heat stuff.
I sure hope all these countries figure out how to supply the vast amounts of electrical power that will be needed. Oftentimes products which demand some thing to be used properly, can be produced and sold quite a bit faster than the supply of the *some thing*. And when a lot of established products already use that same *some thing*, there will be rationing of some sort until that gets resolved.
At good example might be the Tesla Supercharger network, which is pretty much just open to Tesla vehicles. What will the Supercharger landscape look like 6-12 months after thousands of EVs in USA, in addition to Teslas, are all vying for a limited number of charge stations. There will be a strain on stations, but there will also be a strain on the grid because the chargers will be used more continuously.
I recently made the move from ICE to EV (2023 MYLR) and this is "top of mind", as they say.
Awesome video, Sam. Great way to put this data together into digestible information!
Actually you also see a stopover in EV sales as there is a price battle in Switzerland and Europe to ‚pipe filling‘ the market with still lower priced ICE. The reason here is also that most people do not own their housing and investors are too lazy to invest in infrastructure. There is also the press and it’s money from oil lobby telling that EVs are dangerous in garages etc. Those that are intelligent enough to gather information from different and trustworthy media already own an EV for sure. Usually people not influenced by opinions and what the masses are telling so the emotionless who rather care for TCO and how to go best from A to B. Funny enough that Tesla from the very beginning was thinking far ahead for these people. They started with unnecessary playthings, farts etc. and quarter mile races rather than with a serious fact based approach that was just ‚normal‘ to them. The Korean Automakers went another way by reinventing their companies from the ground bringing outstanding design combined with best possible mix of performance, quality and cost relationships. Only the Germans continued electrifying old crap with no new ideas and the Japanese completely are agonized also with their best ICE products still looking manga style of the 80ties. So funny enough that Hyundai group even goes a step farther and shows ultra modern EV technology under the hood of the past times. Renault also got the clue by electrifying some of their old classics cars from glorious past. Again, so far the most realistic company Tesla has rather boring design but the best stories and technologies, even considering that there is real world time and Elon time. Important was so far unlike most ICE legacy automakers that they not only promised like Toyota, Volkswagen, Stellantis & Co.
UK government is deliberately hindering EV adoption, keeping electricity prices sky high and not helping charging point expansion. Many projects are waiting years for cables to be installed.
Green energy even has a windfall tax to make the price higher.
Tories are too influenced by fossil fuel and ICE companies
Its big but not really the biggest disruption of mankind! It's just replacing the energy type of vehicles!
Stone tools, bronze, iron, steam, electricity, farming all had greater impact. 😁
But apart from that, I agree 😂
The only thing that is holding EV's back is the 2-fold battery-problem:
– Cost (Sodium and solid state tech can solve this)
– Durability (nobody wants to exchange their battery after 10 years, it must last the lifetime of the car)
Codswollop
Goodbye NOKIAssssssss!
Bring on the bi-directional Elon